Race
Race Time Predictor
Use a recent race result plus training volume, longest run, and consistent training history to estimate another distance more realistically.
- Starts from a race-performance endurance formula.
- Penalizes longer-distance predictions when durability evidence is limited.
- Predictions are planning ranges, not guarantees.
A multi-parameter predictor combines race performance with training coverage for a more realistic longer-distance estimate.
- Choose the distance of your recent result, then enter its finish time.
- Choose a different target distance to predict.
- Enter representative weekly distance, longest recent run, and weeks of consistent training; these adjust only longer-distance predictions.
Preparation score is a transparent heuristic based on weekly-volume and long-run coverage. It reduces overconfident longer-distance predictions but is not a validated physiological model and cannot measure fueling, terrain, or race-day execution.
- Use the conservative end when preparation is limited.
- Build weekly volume and long runs gradually.
- Update after a real race or meaningful training block.
Use the center estimate as a starting point and the range to choose a target supported by current preparation.
What could I run at another distance?
Weekly distance, longest run, and consistent training history provide a heuristic adjustment for longer-distance estimates. They are readiness signals, not a validated physiological test or guarantee.
Not included in the model: temperature, humidity, altitude, terrain, wind, course elevation, fueling, sleep, illness, fatigue, injury, and other race-day conditions may materially change the actual result.